![]() Finally, there is significant uncertainty facing economic recovery in PEPFAR countries, which will be highly dependent on the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic relief efforts, and vaccine roll-out.In addition, the challenges facing the global economy are likely to continue, particularly in low and middle-income countries, as the strong rebound in 2021 is expected to decelerate in 2022. By contrast, the current projections of global GDP exceed the pre-pandemic projections. While almost all PEPFAR countries were estimated to have experienced some GDP growth in 2021, the projected growth, at least through 2024, remains below pre-pandemic projections (10-13% below). While the global economy was estimated to have recovered in 2021, this was not the case in PEPFAR countries.While PEPFAR countries experienced less of a median GDP drop than the global economy overall in 2020 (1.9% compared to 3.9%), they generally fared worse than their economic and regional peers. In 11 countries, the contraction was greater than 10%. Overall, we find that in the majority of PEPFAR countries, GDP fell in 2020, the year the pandemic emerged, compared to 2019.To inform such efforts, we examined the current and projected economic impact of COVID-19 in 53 PEPFAR countries. The economic impacts of COVID-19 on the HIV response could be as consequential as the direct health impacts, and as such, may significantly affect U.S. has major investments in other health areas, such as PEPFAR, the U.S. This will be especially important in countries where the U.S. COVID-19 Global Response and Recovery Framework seeks to bolster the economies of countries that have suffered due to the pandemic. Among other priorities, the White House’s U.S.While the global economy was estimated to have recovered in 2021, recovery has been uneven and disparities in vaccine access and coverage could threaten improvement in much of the world. The toll the COVID-19 pandemic has exacted on the global economy has been significant, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimating that median global GDP dropped by 3.9% from 2019 to 2020, making it the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
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